Sam R. Hall

This is a guest post I wrote for Cotton Mouth. Find the original post here.

If you ask me, you need to read between the lines a bit with this Clarion-Ledger story on the Childers race in November.

For instance, look at what the NRSC spokesman said to the Clarion-Ledger:

The National Republican Congressional Committee poured money into the runoff, but a NRCC spokesman said the group is not currently involved and would not say whether that will change.

Considering that the DSCC has already committed to at least $1 million to help Congressman Travis Childers win in November, it is likely that the Republican powers-that-be are looking in other venues.

MS01 is now a challenge seat for Republicans, and challenge seats are usually tougher to win than seats you are defending or open seats. Consider that this is the fourth balloting for this seat and that you were beat handily in the special election, then it makes sense for Republicans to jump ship.

There’s also less-than-enthusiastic support coming from state GOP leaders:

Brad White, the state’s incoming Republican party chairman, said the party will help push voters to the polls for Davis and other GOP candidates.

“I’m not betting my house on it, but I believe it’s extremely doable,” he said of Davis’ chances.

Not betting the house on it? Just “doable”? Six months ago, such statements from White would be unheard of.

This is not to say that Childers has it in the bag. It is to say, however, that Republicans — and perhaps Davis himself — have privately acknowledged this seat probably ain’t changing hands in November.